Now Depressed Ike Soaks US Midwest On Way to Canada

Sunday, September 15, 10:00 a.m. - The NHC issued its last update on Ike at 4 a.m. At that time, Ike had been downgraded to a Tropical Depression centered on the Arkansas/Missouri line. The storm had quite a run over land, swamping low-lying areas from Freeport, TX to Terrebonne Parish in Louisiana, blowing out windows in downtown Houston skyscrapers (actually many of windows were broken by pea gravel blown off of neighboring rooftops), and perhaps most critically, stranding an unknown number of non-evacuees, who await search and rescue efforts by local and state officials and the Coast Guard. While hundreds of rescues have been made, officials call the total to date "a drop in a bucket", as tens of thousands of people in coastal areas of Texas failed to comply with the evacuation order.

Saturday, September 13, 4 a.m. - Ike made landfall a couple hours ago in Galveston, TX. Winds are still reported at 110 mph as the storm drives through Houston, making it a strong Category Two storm, liable to cause 5-10 times the relative damage that Gustav wreaked upon Baton Rouge. I worked in the chemical industry in Baton Rouge for more than 20 years and got to know many people in the Houston area, both within my company, and with supplying companies. My thoughts and prayers are with them tonight. Here's a link to a CNN story on the situation in Galveston and Houston.

http://www.cnn.com/2008/US/weather/09/13/hurricane.ike.texas/index.html?iref=mpstoryview

One piece of good news is that a freighter carrying 22 crew members that was marooned in the storm is now safely behind it. The Coast Guard and CNN report that the Cyprus-flagged Antalina is now awaiting a motorized tugboat to take it back to port.

Baton Rouge continues with a sultry, breezy summer night - temperature hovering the low 80s even at 4 a.m. with winds gusting to 30 mph, but relatively calm at the moment. The IR satellite map shown below indicates that we should get some additional rain later today as the storm continues to circulate, but without any dramatic weather, unless a tornado pops up.

Friday, September 12 - As of 11:00 a.m, Ike's outer band has produced a little rain and winds of maybe 15-20 mph with slightly higher gusts. All nothing we can't handle, though we are a little frazzled in the Gustav aftermath. My 2 p.m. medical appointment got moved up to 12:45 p.m. so that both patients and staff can go home early. Eyeballing the above map makes me think that Ike will make landfall at Galveston at about 1 or 2 a.m. on Saturday. I'm hoping that the storm continues its WNW track over the Gulf, leaving Baton Rouge affected only by the outermost band. Tornadoes remain a threat in the very unsettled air covering the entire storm circulation.

Thursday, 11 p.m. - Above is the latest NOAA forecast track for Ike. The storm is focusing on Galveston Bay and the Houston, TX area. A mandatory evacuation has been called for Galveston Island and perhaps for other low-lying areas of the Texas Gulf Coast. Landfall for the eye appears to be coming about 24 hours from now, but the storm is already affecting land with squalls in Louisiana and sea with storm surge in Louisiana and Texas, as seen in the satellite image below. Even though the storm has held at 100 mph sustained winds, the IR satellite image is disturbing in that it shows four very dark areas, the northernmost two of which will probably hit the southwest Louisiana coast. With the general track of the storm after landfall being to the north and east, and given the size of the storm, even Baton Rouge, Louisiana could be in for a very wet and windy weekend. The National Weather Service forecat for Baton Rouge calls for sustained winds up to 30 mph on Friday and 20-25 mph on Saturday with a ongoing 50% chance of rain and thunderstorms on both days. Predicted winds drop off to about 15 mph on Sunday and the rain chance to 30%.

Thursday, 8 a.m. - A very soggy and windy weekend appears in store for the greater Houston area as made a slight shift to the WNW overnight and speeded its approach toward land from 7 mph to 10 mph. Landfall of the eye is now projected at about Lake Jackson, TX (south of Houston) at 2 a.m. on Saturday. The storm is big, so heavy winds and waves should extend over most of the Texas coast and into southwestern Louisiana, both of which were hit hard by Hurricane Rita in September 2005. What passes for good news for Texas is that the storm may have stabilized at 100 mph (Category 2) rather than strengthen further into a Category 3 or even 4 storm. Still, Ike has another 42 hours over warm water to built its power. Without a significant change in Ike's path, Baton Rouge and eastern Louisiana should experience little more than a rainy weekend on the fringe of a tropical storm. One last thought is a wish for good luck and much learning from their Rita experience to the Houston environs, where as many as a million people will try to evacuate. Evacuation to the north appears problematic, as Ike should head north as well. San Antonio about 200 miles to the west may become a very crowded place.

September 10, 10 p.m. - The day has seen Ike move slowly to the NW toward the Texas coast. It has also strengthened back to Category 2, with maximum sustained winds at 100 mph. Other weather forces should push the storm north after it makes landfall near Victoria, TX, but if the storm continues to track NW instead of WNW and moves at 7-8 mph instead of 10-12 mph, the northward push could create landfall in Louisiana. Already the southwest corner of Louisiana has crept back to into the probability cone. The easternmost edge of the landfall probability cone has moved almost 200 miles to the east since 4 p.m. yesterday, a disturbing development for Louisianans after Tuesday's forecasts kept pushing the storm further to the south and west.

September 10, 9 a.m. - Ike's forecasted track has changed little in the last 15 hours, which is good news for Louisianans and bad news for Texans. I'd be happier if the storm would take a more clear westerly track and move a little faster. The last directional observation was NW at 8 mph. The eye of the storm is clear of Cuba. Nothing but warm Gulf water stands between Ike and the western Gulf coast, wherever it may strike. Landfall as at least a Category 2, and possibly higher seems likely.

September 9, 4 p.m. - Another 12 hours has put western Louisiana back in Ike's predicted 5-day cone, albeit not in the projected path of landfall early on Saturday morning. The storm is leaving Cuba with winds still at minimal hurricane strength of 75 mph. Gustav showed us what havoc that can wreak in Baton Rouge. Right now it looks as though LSU and North Texas should plan to play Saturday's game in Baton Rouge, as the storm could be plowing through north Texas just about in time for a 7 p.m. kickoff.

September 9, 5 a.m. - The forecast track for Hurricane Ike moved steadily south and west over the last 21 hours. As you can see from the map above, this is good news for Louisiana (and bad news for south Texas and northern Mexico). Louisiana is now completely outside the 5-day cone (no sure thing, as storms go outside this cone 1/3 of the time). Landfall is now projected near Corpus Christi, TX on Saturday morning. Prayers go out to the unfortunate people of western Cuba, who have experienced two hurricanes in less than two weeks. At long last, the rest of the Atlantic Basin in quiet--no other named storms or even tropical depressions or areas of interest at this time. Still, storms can form quickly. The end of September and October are historically busy months.

September 8, 9 a.m. - With Hurricane Gustav now in our past (except for the pile of brush in the front yard, the broken tree limb over the pond yet to be pulled down, and the outdoor potted plants still in the living room), life could be expected to get back to normal, except for the looming presence of Hurricane Ike, now a Category Two storm making its way across Cuba. The NOAA forecast map shows Ike traversing Cuba and emerging into the Gulf of Mexico late Tuesday night. Though the projected 5-day path points Ike's eye toward Port Arthur, Texas (about where Hurricane Rita hit in 2005), all of Louisiana is in the cone of possibility. Any northward movement of the storm would set up the Louisiana coast for another direct hit. We enjoyed our weekend and newly-restored power (watching lots of tennis, football (go Saints!) and baseball on Sunday), but now our task is similar to that of Tina Turner during her marriage to her performing partner--watch out for Ike!

Justice for the "Jena Six" - September 26 Update - Jena DA Won't Contest Bell Appeal Decision; Will Process Case in Juvenile System

September 29 Update - Mychal Bell was bonded out of jail late this week. Bail was reduced to $45,000 after Bell's case was transferred to the juvenile justice system.

September 26 Update - Louisiana Governor Kathleen Blanco announced tonight that District Attorney Walters of LaSalle Parish had decided not to appeal the overturning of Mychal Bell's conviction as an adult and to pursue the case in the juvenile court system. Blanco encouraged Walters to take this action. She announced the decision in a news conference with civil rights activist Rev. Al Sharpton.

Here's a link to a news article on the case: http://www.2theadvocate.com/news/10056186.html

September 22 Update - Mychal Bell's conviction was overturned on appeal on grounds that he should not have been tried as an adult. However, Bell was not released pending a decision on how his case will be handled.

Despite the decision by the appeals court, tens of thousands of people gathered in Jena on Thursday, September 20 to show support for the Jena Six and to press local authorities to drop all charges. The demonstration received widespread news coverage. It made the front page of the Bloomingon, IN newspaper along with newspapers in more likely places.





September 4 Update - CNN is now covering the "Jena Six" story. Here's a link to their latest article on http://www.cnn.com/.

http://www.cnn.com/2007/US/law/09/04/bell.jena.six/index.html

MSNBC reported today that charges against two of the six African-American have been reduced.

"On Tuesday, charges against Carwin Jones and Theo Shaw were reduced to aggravated second-degree battery and conspiracy. That same reduction was made earlier for Mychal Bell, who was tried and found guilty and could be sentenced to 22½ years at a hearing Sept. 20."

Here's a link with MSNBC's complete story.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/20589789/?GT1=10357

August 30 - Recently the case of the so-called "Jena Six" has received attention from the national press.

Jena, Louisiana is a small town where there have been several incidents involving both white and African-American high school students, starting with white students hanging red, white and blue nooses from a tree on the high school grounds after African-American students "violated" unwritten school rules by sitting at a table under the tree. The hanging of the nooses and other actions by white students have been treated as pranks or disciplined with "in school suspensions" by officials in the 86% white town. Actions by African-American students have been met with intimidating rhetoric by local officials and with felony charges. These African-American students are the "Jena Six." Actions in support of fair treatment of these students under the law are being taken, and future actions, including a rally in Jena on September 20 are being planned by citizens across Louisiana and elsewhere.

Here's a link to a Newsweek story on the case.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/20218937/site/newsweek/

Here's a copy of an e-mail I sent to Louisiana Governor Kathleen Blanco urging her to use her influence to insure fair treatment of the "Jena Six."


Dear Governor Blanco,

Your actions as Louisiana’s governor these last three and a half years have demonstrated your commitment to both fair treatment and the best interests of all citizens of Louisiana.

In this light, I urge you to use your presence and influence to provide fair treatment for a group of African-American youth known as the "Jena Six". For whatever reason—ignorance, racism, power--these young people have been subjected to unfair treatment as regards several confrontations in the Jena, LA high school community. Aggressive actions, some with racial overtones, by white youth have been dismissed as pranks or disciplined with in-school suspensions. Sometimes retaliatory and sometimes defensive actions by the African-American students have been met with felony charges by local law enforcement officials. Rhetoric by those officials indicate a prejudicial attitude toward the African-American students. Efforts by the ACLU and other organizations to assist the Jena Six are derided by local officials as "outside meddling", a phrase reminiscent of the civil rights struggles of the 1950s and ‘60s. Observers from across the political spectrum are decrying the evident miscarriage of justice in these cases.

At this point, the Jena Six face a range of criminal charges that threaten their freedom as young adults. I implore you to bring your fair-minded approach to government and the people to bear on the situation to insure that the Jena Six receive fair treatment under the law.