Now Depressed Ike Soaks US Midwest On Way to Canada

Sunday, September 15, 10:00 a.m. - The NHC issued its last update on Ike at 4 a.m. At that time, Ike had been downgraded to a Tropical Depression centered on the Arkansas/Missouri line. The storm had quite a run over land, swamping low-lying areas from Freeport, TX to Terrebonne Parish in Louisiana, blowing out windows in downtown Houston skyscrapers (actually many of windows were broken by pea gravel blown off of neighboring rooftops), and perhaps most critically, stranding an unknown number of non-evacuees, who await search and rescue efforts by local and state officials and the Coast Guard. While hundreds of rescues have been made, officials call the total to date "a drop in a bucket", as tens of thousands of people in coastal areas of Texas failed to comply with the evacuation order.

Saturday, September 13, 4 a.m. - Ike made landfall a couple hours ago in Galveston, TX. Winds are still reported at 110 mph as the storm drives through Houston, making it a strong Category Two storm, liable to cause 5-10 times the relative damage that Gustav wreaked upon Baton Rouge. I worked in the chemical industry in Baton Rouge for more than 20 years and got to know many people in the Houston area, both within my company, and with supplying companies. My thoughts and prayers are with them tonight. Here's a link to a CNN story on the situation in Galveston and Houston.

http://www.cnn.com/2008/US/weather/09/13/hurricane.ike.texas/index.html?iref=mpstoryview

One piece of good news is that a freighter carrying 22 crew members that was marooned in the storm is now safely behind it. The Coast Guard and CNN report that the Cyprus-flagged Antalina is now awaiting a motorized tugboat to take it back to port.

Baton Rouge continues with a sultry, breezy summer night - temperature hovering the low 80s even at 4 a.m. with winds gusting to 30 mph, but relatively calm at the moment. The IR satellite map shown below indicates that we should get some additional rain later today as the storm continues to circulate, but without any dramatic weather, unless a tornado pops up.

Friday, September 12 - As of 11:00 a.m, Ike's outer band has produced a little rain and winds of maybe 15-20 mph with slightly higher gusts. All nothing we can't handle, though we are a little frazzled in the Gustav aftermath. My 2 p.m. medical appointment got moved up to 12:45 p.m. so that both patients and staff can go home early. Eyeballing the above map makes me think that Ike will make landfall at Galveston at about 1 or 2 a.m. on Saturday. I'm hoping that the storm continues its WNW track over the Gulf, leaving Baton Rouge affected only by the outermost band. Tornadoes remain a threat in the very unsettled air covering the entire storm circulation.

Thursday, 11 p.m. - Above is the latest NOAA forecast track for Ike. The storm is focusing on Galveston Bay and the Houston, TX area. A mandatory evacuation has been called for Galveston Island and perhaps for other low-lying areas of the Texas Gulf Coast. Landfall for the eye appears to be coming about 24 hours from now, but the storm is already affecting land with squalls in Louisiana and sea with storm surge in Louisiana and Texas, as seen in the satellite image below. Even though the storm has held at 100 mph sustained winds, the IR satellite image is disturbing in that it shows four very dark areas, the northernmost two of which will probably hit the southwest Louisiana coast. With the general track of the storm after landfall being to the north and east, and given the size of the storm, even Baton Rouge, Louisiana could be in for a very wet and windy weekend. The National Weather Service forecat for Baton Rouge calls for sustained winds up to 30 mph on Friday and 20-25 mph on Saturday with a ongoing 50% chance of rain and thunderstorms on both days. Predicted winds drop off to about 15 mph on Sunday and the rain chance to 30%.

Thursday, 8 a.m. - A very soggy and windy weekend appears in store for the greater Houston area as made a slight shift to the WNW overnight and speeded its approach toward land from 7 mph to 10 mph. Landfall of the eye is now projected at about Lake Jackson, TX (south of Houston) at 2 a.m. on Saturday. The storm is big, so heavy winds and waves should extend over most of the Texas coast and into southwestern Louisiana, both of which were hit hard by Hurricane Rita in September 2005. What passes for good news for Texas is that the storm may have stabilized at 100 mph (Category 2) rather than strengthen further into a Category 3 or even 4 storm. Still, Ike has another 42 hours over warm water to built its power. Without a significant change in Ike's path, Baton Rouge and eastern Louisiana should experience little more than a rainy weekend on the fringe of a tropical storm. One last thought is a wish for good luck and much learning from their Rita experience to the Houston environs, where as many as a million people will try to evacuate. Evacuation to the north appears problematic, as Ike should head north as well. San Antonio about 200 miles to the west may become a very crowded place.

September 10, 10 p.m. - The day has seen Ike move slowly to the NW toward the Texas coast. It has also strengthened back to Category 2, with maximum sustained winds at 100 mph. Other weather forces should push the storm north after it makes landfall near Victoria, TX, but if the storm continues to track NW instead of WNW and moves at 7-8 mph instead of 10-12 mph, the northward push could create landfall in Louisiana. Already the southwest corner of Louisiana has crept back to into the probability cone. The easternmost edge of the landfall probability cone has moved almost 200 miles to the east since 4 p.m. yesterday, a disturbing development for Louisianans after Tuesday's forecasts kept pushing the storm further to the south and west.

September 10, 9 a.m. - Ike's forecasted track has changed little in the last 15 hours, which is good news for Louisianans and bad news for Texans. I'd be happier if the storm would take a more clear westerly track and move a little faster. The last directional observation was NW at 8 mph. The eye of the storm is clear of Cuba. Nothing but warm Gulf water stands between Ike and the western Gulf coast, wherever it may strike. Landfall as at least a Category 2, and possibly higher seems likely.

September 9, 4 p.m. - Another 12 hours has put western Louisiana back in Ike's predicted 5-day cone, albeit not in the projected path of landfall early on Saturday morning. The storm is leaving Cuba with winds still at minimal hurricane strength of 75 mph. Gustav showed us what havoc that can wreak in Baton Rouge. Right now it looks as though LSU and North Texas should plan to play Saturday's game in Baton Rouge, as the storm could be plowing through north Texas just about in time for a 7 p.m. kickoff.

September 9, 5 a.m. - The forecast track for Hurricane Ike moved steadily south and west over the last 21 hours. As you can see from the map above, this is good news for Louisiana (and bad news for south Texas and northern Mexico). Louisiana is now completely outside the 5-day cone (no sure thing, as storms go outside this cone 1/3 of the time). Landfall is now projected near Corpus Christi, TX on Saturday morning. Prayers go out to the unfortunate people of western Cuba, who have experienced two hurricanes in less than two weeks. At long last, the rest of the Atlantic Basin in quiet--no other named storms or even tropical depressions or areas of interest at this time. Still, storms can form quickly. The end of September and October are historically busy months.

September 8, 9 a.m. - With Hurricane Gustav now in our past (except for the pile of brush in the front yard, the broken tree limb over the pond yet to be pulled down, and the outdoor potted plants still in the living room), life could be expected to get back to normal, except for the looming presence of Hurricane Ike, now a Category Two storm making its way across Cuba. The NOAA forecast map shows Ike traversing Cuba and emerging into the Gulf of Mexico late Tuesday night. Though the projected 5-day path points Ike's eye toward Port Arthur, Texas (about where Hurricane Rita hit in 2005), all of Louisiana is in the cone of possibility. Any northward movement of the storm would set up the Louisiana coast for another direct hit. We enjoyed our weekend and newly-restored power (watching lots of tennis, football (go Saints!) and baseball on Sunday), but now our task is similar to that of Tina Turner during her marriage to her performing partner--watch out for Ike!

Storm Tracker - Karen Dissipates; Melissa Weakening

September 30, 4 p.m. CDT - Karen dissipated in the Atlantic without threatening land. The same fate appears to await Tropical Depression Melissa. NHC has discontinued advisories on Melissa. Thanks go to upper level winds that are tearing up storm circulation.

September 29, 4 a.m. CDT - As predicted, Lorenzo dissipated inland over Mexico on Friday.

Tropical Storm Karen continues to fight to survive over the Atlantic. It remains barely a Tropical Storm at 40 mph. Coordinates are 16.6 N and 52.9 W. Movement remains WNW at 12 mph. Projected track is NW as a Tropical Depression toward the U.S. Atlantic Seaboard, with the storm centered more than 500 miles north of Puerto Rico by next Thursday morning.

Tropical Storm Melissa has formed just west of the Azores. Winds are 40 mph. Coordinates are 14.1 N and 27.4 W. Movement is W at a logy 3 mph. Projection is for storm to move slowly WNW with some weakening over the next five days, posing no threat to land during that time.

September 28, 7 a.m. CDT - Lorenzo came inland over southern Mexico. It is now a Tropical Storm and is expected to dissipate later today.

Tropical Storm Karen brings good news and bad news. It continues to weaken due to strong upper level winds. Top wind speed is down to 45 mph. NHC says that further weakening is possible. However, the projected track takes a sharp turn to the west on Wednesday, pointing the storm more toward the Bahamas and Florida.

September 27, 10 p.m. CDT - Tropical Depression became Hurricane Lorenzo in short order. Maximum winds have increased to 80 mph. Lorenzo is just off the Mexican coast near Veracruz. It is expected to make landfall near dawn on Friday and blow itself out inland during the day Friday.

Tropical Storm Karen has diminished slightly to 60 mph top wind speeed. It's at 14.8N and 48.5W, advancing WNW at 14 mph. The five-day forecast shows Karen holding at storm strength, but shifting direction early next week toward the west and a possible path toward the US Eastern Seaboard.

September 27 Update - Status and prognosis of both storms is more-or-less unchanged since last night. If anything, projected path for Karen is pointing more out to sea. She's also lost a little wind speed to 65 mph. Current coordinates are 13.7 N and 47.3 W. Track is WNW at 12 mph.

Tropical Depression 13 failed to achieve Tropical Storm status overnight. Top winds remain 35 mph. The storm is stationary off the Mexican coast. NHC expects it to make landfall Friday morning and dissipate by Saturday evening.

September 26 Update - Tropical Storm Karen with 70 mph winds has formed in the Atlantic, over 1000 miles east of the Windward Islands (13.0 N, 45.1 W). Its projected path and strength show it remaining just below hurricane strength as it moves NW toward the US Eastern Seaboard. Current movement is WNW at 14 mph. By Monday, October 1, the storm is projected to be about 500 miles NE of Puerto Rico. Of course, this is a long-term forecast, so this storm bears close watch.

Also, Tropical Depression 13 has formed in the Bay of Campeche. It is expected to make landfall in Mexico as Tropical Storm Lorenzo and dissipate by Saturday evening in south central Mexico.

September 22 Update - Subtropical Depression 10 strengthened no further before making landfall in the Florida Panhandle and causing a rainy Saturday along the Gulf Coast.

September 21 Update: Subtropical Depression 10 has formed off the coast of the Florida Panhandle. Top winds are 35 mph. The storm is projected to move WNW and dissipate over central Louisiana by Sunday. If winds reach 39 mph as forecasted, it will become Tropical Storm Jerry.

September 18 Update - Tropical Depression/Storm Ingrid has dissipated in the waters east of Puerto Rico without threatening any land.

September 17 Update - Ingrid has been downgraded to a Tropical Depression. NHC issued its last report on the storm this morning at 5 am. EDT. They expect the storm to dissipate completely in the next two days. Above is their last forecast map for Ingrid.

As of 11 p.m. EDT, Tropical Depression Eight is Tropical Storm Ingrid. Coordinates are 14.7 N 48.7 W. The storm is creeping WNW at 6 mph with maximum sustained winds of 40 mph, just above the tropical storm threshold of 39. Extrapolating the NHC's projected path (a dangerous practice) puts Ingrid on the Atlantic Coast (or out to sea) rather than in the Gulf. Better to watch the NHC's forecasts. Still we won't know much even by next Tuesday if the storm continues at its current slow pace.

As of 4 p.m. CDT, Humberto was downgraded to a Tropical Depression. Winds are 35 mph. The center of the storm is in Alexandria, LA. Humberto is expected to cross central Mississippi and Alabama in the next two days.

As of 10 p.m. CDT, Humberto's winds fell to 25 mph. This is the National Hurricane Center's last update on Humberto. East Bay Bayou in Texas got 14.3" of rain. Other east Texas locales took on 5-7" of rain. Louisiana locales got 2-5"; Mississippi, 1.5 to 3". A historical note is that Humberto grew into a hurricane in just 16 hours, the fastest-developing hurricane on record.

Tropical Depression Eight gained no strength today and continues slowly on a WNW track. The NHC doesn't expect it to develop past Tropical Storm status in the next five days.

7 a.m. Update - In the last three hours, Humberto moved north. The eye is now near Vinton, LA--right at the TX/LA border. Top winds are still 80 mph. The projected track is unchanged from the 4 a.m. forecast.

September 13, 4 a.m. - Now-Hurricane Humberto grew up fast overnight, with winds strengthening to 85 mph, making Humberto a Category 1 storm. It made landfall early this morning in extreme southeast Texas near Beaumont. Location is 29.9 N and 94.1 W. Movement is NNE at 8 mph. The storm is expected to weaken as it moves further inland, becoming a tropical storm again as it reaches Louisiana and a tropical depression as it passes through Louisiana, Mississippi and eventually Alabama. Rains of 5-10" are forecast on its path, with localized amounts up to 15".

Tropical Depression Eight's status is essentially unchanged. WInds are still 35 mph. The center is moving WNW at 10 mph. Coordinates are 13.9 N and 47.5 W, about 800 miles east of the Lesser Antilles.

September 12 - With their 1 p.m. CDT update, the National Hurricane Center upgraded a system in the U.S. Gulf of Mexico to Tropical Storm Humberto. Location is 28.3 N and 95.1 W, about 100 miles south of Houston. Top sustained wind speed is 45 mph. The storm is moving north at 6 mph. It is expected to make landfall late this evening along the Texas coast between Port O'Connor and the TX/Louisiana border. Rainfall amounts of 5-10" are forecast for SE Texas and SW Louisiana, with isolated areas receiving up to 15" of rain. This is not the best news for this part of Texas, which has had a very rainy summer already. The storm is predicted to track more NE into north Louisiana once it reaches land.

Perhaps a greater long-term threat is Tropical Depression 8, which has formed at 13.2, 44.6N, about 1000 miles east of the Lesser Antilles in the Caribbean. This storm has winds of 35 mph and is moving WNW at 12 mph. The NHC shows the system becoming Tropical Storm Ingrid by tomorrow, and staying at that level for the next several days while it moves slowly toward Puerto Rico. "Ingrid"'s projected track is troubling because it could pass north of Puerto Rico into "Hurricane Alley" between Cuba and Florida. Both Katrina and Rita followed this course in 2005. I will follow this storm closely and provide frequent updates.

dadlak's Storm Tracker, September 5 - Felix Downgraded to Tropical Depression - In Honduras Heading for El Salvador

September 5, 4 a.m. CDT - Felix has been downgraded to a Tropical Depression and is heading west across Honduras toward El Salvador. Good news for Belizeans and Mexicans who suffered Hurricane Dean. This may be the last update on this storm, other than news on the human toll in Central America. So far only three deaths have been attributed to Felix. There is still great concern about heavy rains causing mudslides.

September 4, 4 p.m. CDT - With winds slowed to 75 mph, Felix has been downgraded to a Category 1 storm as it reaches the Nicaragua/Honduras border. The forecast shows it weakening further to a tropical depression by midday tomorrow and losing even that status before it reaches Mexico. Torrential rains (up to 25") and mudslides appear to be the main threats to life in the mountains of Central American countries Nicaragua, Honduras and Guatemala. The capitals of both Honduras and Guatemala include shantytowns build on hillsides.

Pacific Hurricane Henriette made landfall on Baja California on Wednesday as well, the first time in recorded history that two hurricanes reached land on the same day. Henriette came ashore as a Category 1 storm with winds of 85 mph.

September 4, 8 a.m. - Felix made landfall this morning in northeast Nicaragua as a potentially catastropic Category 5 storm. Felix is the second Category 5 hurricane to strike Central America in 14 days. This is the first season since hurricane tracking began in the 19th century that two Category 5 storms have made landfall in the same year. Top winds are 160 mph. The storm is tracking W at 16 mph.

The forecasted track shows Felix remaining at hurricane strength across Nicaragua, crossing Honduras as a tropical storm, and then entering Guatemala as a tropical depression, staying so on the rest of its trip through extreme southern Mexico. This is a 150-mile adjustment south from last night's forecasted track. We pray for a repeat of the minimal loss of life that resulted from Hurricane Dean.

Here's a map the 8 a.m. EDT projection.

September 3 - You leave town for a few days and what happens? A new hurricane develops off the coast of South America, quickly strengthens to Category 5 and races across the southern Caribbean with landfall expected near the Nicaragua/Honduras border as a Category 3 or 4 on Tuesday, September 4. The storm is then projected to cut across both Honduras and Guatemala before tracing the rainy path of Dean through Mexico.

Here's the 11 p.m. EDT projection.

August 23 - Dean Downgraded! As of 10 p.m. CDT on August 22, Hurricane Dean was downgraded to a tropical depression as it dissipated over a mountainous area in central Mexico. The NHC issued no further advisories or forecasts after that time. The Atlantic Basin looks reasonably calm. Hopefully we can get well into September or later before having to track another tropical storm.

August 22, 10 a.m. Hurricane Dean made its way across the Yucatan yesterday. No deaths were reported, but communication with small and remote Mayan villages is difficult, so more news may be forthcoming. Dean passed through the Bay of Campeche overnight, battering oil and gas rigs along the way, and made landfall this morning near Tecolutla, Mexico in state of Veracruz as a Category 2 storm with maximum winds of 100 mph. By Thursday morning, Dean should weaken back to a Tropical Depression. At first landfall on the Yucatan, Dean recorded the third lowest barometric pressure of any Atlantic basin storm, 906 mb.

August 21, 7 a.m. CDT - Dean made landfall as a Category 5 hurricane with maximum winds of 165 mph at 4:30 a.m. in a relative unpopulated and well-evacuated area of the Yucatan Peninsula in Mexico. The storm, which has been downgraded to Category 3, is racing across the Yucatan to the WNW at 20 mph. It's expected to exit the peninsula as a Category 1 storm and reenter Mexico south of Tampico as a Category 3 with winds of 120 mph.

So far no deaths have been reported. CNN is reporting only seven total deaths related to the storm. MSNBC puts the death toll at "at least 12." CNN expects impact on the oil and gas industry to be minimal as rigs in the Bay of Campeche have already been evacuated. The Weather Channel's assessment of this issue was more threatening. The oil and gas rigs in the Bay are owned by PEMEX, the state oil company of Mexico. I haven't seen or heard any reports from Belize. The Weather Channel says specifically that they have no information from Belize.

10 p.m.CDT Now a Category 5 storm with 160 mph winds, Hurricane Dean churns to within 150 miles of the Yucatan coast. The eye will make landfall sometime overnight near the Mexico/Belize border. According to the NHC, after passing through the Yucatan, the storm should stay in the Bay of Campeche before reentering Mexico on Wednesday morning. Dean's death toll in the Caribbean has been revised downward to 12.

5 p.m. Dean continues to bear down on the Yucatan with 150 mph winds. As it continues west rather than northwest, the small country of Belize is more at risk. We vacationed there in 2003. It is a beautiful, laid-back place that's not built to withstand a Category 4 or 5 storm. I hope Dean stays far enough to the north so that Belize gets the "back side" impact.

August 20, 8 a.m. - Dean's current death toll in Jamaica is nine, bringing the storm's total to 17. The Jamaica toll seems low given the general lack of response to governmental pleas for citizens to evacuate to shelters. The storm is now west of Jamaica at 17.8 N and 81.5 W heading W at 21 mph with maximum wind speed up to 150 mph. The entire Yucatan peninsula is under either a hurricane warning (east side) or watch (west side). The Belizean coast has a tropical storm warning. The 5-day cone for Dean's next landfall is now well within Mexico's boundaries, with the northern edge about 150 miles south of Brownsville, TX.

11 p.m. - The eye of Dean has passed Jamaica. Winds are holding at 145 mph. The storm is moving WNW at 18 mph toward the Yucatan, which has been issued a hurricane warning. Landfall is expected early Tuesday. The Cayman Islands will apparently get a glancing blow, but still with up to 12" of rain. So far there's been no report of impact on Jamaica. The NHC says Dean will reach Category Five (160 mph winds) before striking the Yucatan on Tuesday.

August 19, 2 p.m. EDT - Winds holding at 145 mph. Eye coordinates are 17.1 N and 76.0 W, just off SE coast of Jamaica. 145 mph winds and 20 inches of rain are predicted for the Caribbean island. Residents are heading for high country. The 5-day cone is now almost entirely in Mexico.

1 p.m. EDT - Winds "down" to 145 mph. At least the strengthening pattern has been broken. Coordinates are 16.2 N and 71.7 W. Movement is W at 17 mph. The eye path now brushes the south coast of Jamaica rather than going over the center of the island, but it's not a very big island. It needs to miss by more than 10 miles. The 5-day cone is about 80% in Mexico and 20% in south Texas--at best, more rain is coming to an already soggy area (especially after Tropical Storm Erin drenched the region)

8 p.m. EDT - Winds still at 150 mph. Track back to W at 17 mph. Coordinates are 16.0 N and 71.0 W. The southern coast of Jamaica is at about 17.5 N. Eastern end of Jamaica is at 76 W. I'm praying that Dean holds a dead westerly track. If it could reach Jamaica's longitude while its center is at 16.5 N or less, then Jamaica would receive more of Category 1 storm than a Category 4. Hurricane winds extend out 70 miles. One degree of latitude is about 140 miles. The landing point in Mexico keeps moving south--good news for Texans and Louisianans, as long as Dean behaves itself once it hits the Yucatan.

1 a.m. - Dean's winds are holding at 150 mph. Direction now WNW at 17 mph. Coordinates are 15.7 N and 68.6 W. Jamaica has been upgraded to a hurricane warning. Cayman Islands have a hurricane watch.

August 18, 8 a.m. Update - Dean is at 15.4 N and 67.9 W heading W at 17 mph. Top wind speed is 150 mph, just under Category 5. All storm warnings and watches that were in place last night remain.

1 p.m Update - Dean is packing 145 mph winds. Hurricane warning extends for entire southern coast of Haiti. Coordinates are 14.9 N and 65.9 W. Movement is W at 18 mph. Landfall in northern Mexico predicted for 2 a.m. on Thursday, August 23.

8 p.m. Update - Dean is now a Category 4 hurricane with top wind speed at 135 mph. Storm coordinates are 14.9 N and 65 W. Movement is W at 19 mph. Hurricane watch has been issued for southermost Hispaniola. Tropical storm watch has been issued for southern Cuba coast. Projected landfall locations haven't moved since the last update.

5 p.m. Update - A hurricane watch has been posted for Jamaica. The storm coordinates are 15.0 N and 64.5 W. Top wind speed is 125 mph. Movement is W at 21 mph. Ultimate landfall projection seems to have shifted slightly south into Mexico.

You can see the location and size of Hurricane Dean in this radar shot of the Atlantic Ocean. I hope that orange area off the west coast of Africa doesn't organize into another storm.

Below this is a closer radar view of the Caribbean with Dean looming in the east.

Here's a link for the radar pictures

http://www.weather.com/maps/news/atlstorm4/caribbeansatellite_large.html

More Storm Info at 3 p.m. - According to MSNBC, the projected track shown below is a composite of four models. Three of the models show the eye going ashore in northern Mexico. The other predicts a northward turn and landfall in Louisiana (yikes!)

3 p.m. Update - Max winds are now 125 mph--Category 3. Projected path is a little further north with the eye just clipping the tip of the Yucatan Peninsula. Hurricane force winds (74+ mph) extend 25 miles from the eye. Tropical storm force winds (39 - 73 mph) extend 185 miles from the eye. One fatality was reported on St. Lucia when a 62-year old man was killed while trying to retrieve a cow. Martinique appears to have suffered significant damage. Other Caribbean islands have had lesser damage.

August 17, 8 a.m. Update - Hurricane Dean passed through the Lesser Antilles this morning. The eye passed between the islands of Martinique and St. Lucia.

At 8 am EDT today, the center of the storm was located at 14.4 N and 61.7 W, just W of these islands. Top storm winds are 100 mph, making Dean a Category 2 storm. Forward movement of the storm is W at 23 mph.

Various storm warnings and watches are in place for Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands, and the southern coast of Hispaniola (Dominican Rep. and Haiti). Jamaica also appears to be in the path, likely on Sunday.

Landfall on the northern tip of the Yucatan Peninsula is forecasted for early a.m. on Tuesday, August 21. Once the storm clears the Yucatan, forecasters think it will still be a hurricane on a northwesterly track toward the south Texas coast.

If the storm maintains its direction so far, it will hit further south on the Yucatan and threathen Mexico rather than Texas.

Dean's path looks eerily similar to that of Hurricane Gilbert in September 1988, which devastated the Yucatan and inland Mexico, killing more than 300 people. Gilbert hit Jamaica as a Category 4 storm and came ashore on the Yucatan as a Category 5 and again on the Mexican Gulf Coast as a Category 4. It had the second lowest atmospheric pressure ever recorded for an Atlantic hurricane and its wind speeds peaked at 185 mph.

Hurricane Allen took much the same path in 1980, but slipped between the Yucatan and Cuba to make landfall as a Category 3 at Brownsville, TX.

Hurricane Ivan took a similar path in September 2004, passing between the Yucatan and Cuba, then turning north to hit the Florida Panhandle.

Hurricane Wilma of 2005, brewed in the southern Caribbean, struck the tip of the Yucatan as a Category 5 and bounced northeastward toward Florida, then travelled off the Atlantic coast for the rest of its path.

The devastating 2005 storms, Katrina and Rita, entered the Gulf between Cuba and south Florida before heading to the Mississippi and Louisiana coasts respectively.


The website http://flhurricane.com/ has great information on the current storm and on past storms.

Above is the latest NHC map of Dean.


August 16 1 p.m. Update - Dean became a Category 1 hurricane at 8 a.m. this morning. At 1 p.m. max wind speeds are up to 90 mph--still a Category 1 storm, but approaching Category 2.

The islands of Dominica and St. Lucia are under a hurricane warning. Other islands in the same region are under tropical storm warnings.

Movement is still West at a brisk 23 mph. Position of center is 13.7 N 54.3 W.

Projection is for storm to clip the Yucatan Peninsula on August 21, though Jamaica is clearly in the path of the storm. The next update will begin to show how forecasters think the storm will emerge from the Yucatan. If the storm shifts more to the NW, it stands a better chance of reaching the US Gulf rather than raining itself out over Central America or Mexico.


Here's the NHC's report and 5-day projection for Tropical Storm Dean. Current position is 13.1 N and 50.2 W. Max winds are at 70 mph, just under hurricane velocity. Dean is no more than 12 hours from becoming a hurricane. It's moving West at a brisk 23 mph. A hurricane watch has been posted for the first set of islands in the storm's path. Dean's projected path is relatively unchanged, heading along the south coast of Jamaica toward the Yucatan Peninsula.

Tropical Storm Erin is poised to strike the South Texas coast Thursday (8/16) morning, but top winds are only 40 mph and impact is expected to be light.

More details from the National Hurricane Center can be found at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

As of 5 a.m. EDT, Dean continues to move dead west. Forecasters have pushed its projected path a little further south--now steaming toward Jamaica and arriving there on August 20. Maximum winds are up to 50 mph. Forward speed is 18 mph. Location is 12.2 N 44.2 W.

Dean's path didn't change much between 11 a.m. and 5 p.m. EDT on August 14, though Hispanola (Haiti/Dominican Republic) has come more into the path with the storm drifting ever so slightly south (now at 11.6 N and 41.0 W). Maximum winds remain at 40 mph. The storm is moving west at 21 mph. A more northerly track would be better for us in Louisiana.

Tropical Depression Four has a new name--Tropical Storm Dean, as it reached 40 mph maximum sustained winds at the August 14, 11 a.m. EDT update by the National Hurricane Center. It is centered at 11.7 N and 39.4 W, moving W at 23 mph.

This is the projected storm track of Tropical Depression Four as of 5 a.m. EDT on August 14.

The first tropical storm of 2007 with a chance to threaten the continental US has formed in the Atlantic as Tropical Depression Four.

As of 5 am EDT on August 14, it was located at 12.0 N 36.6 W, with maximum winds of 35 mph, moving W at 21 mph. When maximum sustained winds reach 39 mph, the depression will become Tropical Storm Dean.

Projections by the National Hurricane Center (NHC) show the storm moving west and then WNW over the next few days, reaching Puerto Rico as a hurricane by Sunday, August 19. It's still to early to tell whether the storm will stay in the Atlantic or enter the Caribbean and perhaps the Gulf of Mexico.

Above is a map of the 5-day storm track projection from the NHC.