Sunday, September 30, 2007

Storm Tracker - Karen Dissipates; Melissa Weakening

September 30, 4 p.m. CDT - Karen dissipated in the Atlantic without threatening land. The same fate appears to await Tropical Depression Melissa. NHC has discontinued advisories on Melissa. Thanks go to upper level winds that are tearing up storm circulation.

September 29, 4 a.m. CDT - As predicted, Lorenzo dissipated inland over Mexico on Friday.

Tropical Storm Karen continues to fight to survive over the Atlantic. It remains barely a Tropical Storm at 40 mph. Coordinates are 16.6 N and 52.9 W. Movement remains WNW at 12 mph. Projected track is NW as a Tropical Depression toward the U.S. Atlantic Seaboard, with the storm centered more than 500 miles north of Puerto Rico by next Thursday morning.

Tropical Storm Melissa has formed just west of the Azores. Winds are 40 mph. Coordinates are 14.1 N and 27.4 W. Movement is W at a logy 3 mph. Projection is for storm to move slowly WNW with some weakening over the next five days, posing no threat to land during that time.

September 28, 7 a.m. CDT - Lorenzo came inland over southern Mexico. It is now a Tropical Storm and is expected to dissipate later today.

Tropical Storm Karen brings good news and bad news. It continues to weaken due to strong upper level winds. Top wind speed is down to 45 mph. NHC says that further weakening is possible. However, the projected track takes a sharp turn to the west on Wednesday, pointing the storm more toward the Bahamas and Florida.

September 27, 10 p.m. CDT - Tropical Depression became Hurricane Lorenzo in short order. Maximum winds have increased to 80 mph. Lorenzo is just off the Mexican coast near Veracruz. It is expected to make landfall near dawn on Friday and blow itself out inland during the day Friday.

Tropical Storm Karen has diminished slightly to 60 mph top wind speeed. It's at 14.8N and 48.5W, advancing WNW at 14 mph. The five-day forecast shows Karen holding at storm strength, but shifting direction early next week toward the west and a possible path toward the US Eastern Seaboard.

September 27 Update - Status and prognosis of both storms is more-or-less unchanged since last night. If anything, projected path for Karen is pointing more out to sea. She's also lost a little wind speed to 65 mph. Current coordinates are 13.7 N and 47.3 W. Track is WNW at 12 mph.

Tropical Depression 13 failed to achieve Tropical Storm status overnight. Top winds remain 35 mph. The storm is stationary off the Mexican coast. NHC expects it to make landfall Friday morning and dissipate by Saturday evening.

September 26 Update - Tropical Storm Karen with 70 mph winds has formed in the Atlantic, over 1000 miles east of the Windward Islands (13.0 N, 45.1 W). Its projected path and strength show it remaining just below hurricane strength as it moves NW toward the US Eastern Seaboard. Current movement is WNW at 14 mph. By Monday, October 1, the storm is projected to be about 500 miles NE of Puerto Rico. Of course, this is a long-term forecast, so this storm bears close watch.

Also, Tropical Depression 13 has formed in the Bay of Campeche. It is expected to make landfall in Mexico as Tropical Storm Lorenzo and dissipate by Saturday evening in south central Mexico.

September 22 Update - Subtropical Depression 10 strengthened no further before making landfall in the Florida Panhandle and causing a rainy Saturday along the Gulf Coast.

September 21 Update: Subtropical Depression 10 has formed off the coast of the Florida Panhandle. Top winds are 35 mph. The storm is projected to move WNW and dissipate over central Louisiana by Sunday. If winds reach 39 mph as forecasted, it will become Tropical Storm Jerry.

September 18 Update - Tropical Depression/Storm Ingrid has dissipated in the waters east of Puerto Rico without threatening any land.

September 17 Update - Ingrid has been downgraded to a Tropical Depression. NHC issued its last report on the storm this morning at 5 am. EDT. They expect the storm to dissipate completely in the next two days. Above is their last forecast map for Ingrid.

As of 11 p.m. EDT, Tropical Depression Eight is Tropical Storm Ingrid. Coordinates are 14.7 N 48.7 W. The storm is creeping WNW at 6 mph with maximum sustained winds of 40 mph, just above the tropical storm threshold of 39. Extrapolating the NHC's projected path (a dangerous practice) puts Ingrid on the Atlantic Coast (or out to sea) rather than in the Gulf. Better to watch the NHC's forecasts. Still we won't know much even by next Tuesday if the storm continues at its current slow pace.

As of 4 p.m. CDT, Humberto was downgraded to a Tropical Depression. Winds are 35 mph. The center of the storm is in Alexandria, LA. Humberto is expected to cross central Mississippi and Alabama in the next two days.

As of 10 p.m. CDT, Humberto's winds fell to 25 mph. This is the National Hurricane Center's last update on Humberto. East Bay Bayou in Texas got 14.3" of rain. Other east Texas locales took on 5-7" of rain. Louisiana locales got 2-5"; Mississippi, 1.5 to 3". A historical note is that Humberto grew into a hurricane in just 16 hours, the fastest-developing hurricane on record.

Tropical Depression Eight gained no strength today and continues slowly on a WNW track. The NHC doesn't expect it to develop past Tropical Storm status in the next five days.

7 a.m. Update - In the last three hours, Humberto moved north. The eye is now near Vinton, LA--right at the TX/LA border. Top winds are still 80 mph. The projected track is unchanged from the 4 a.m. forecast.

September 13, 4 a.m. - Now-Hurricane Humberto grew up fast overnight, with winds strengthening to 85 mph, making Humberto a Category 1 storm. It made landfall early this morning in extreme southeast Texas near Beaumont. Location is 29.9 N and 94.1 W. Movement is NNE at 8 mph. The storm is expected to weaken as it moves further inland, becoming a tropical storm again as it reaches Louisiana and a tropical depression as it passes through Louisiana, Mississippi and eventually Alabama. Rains of 5-10" are forecast on its path, with localized amounts up to 15".

Tropical Depression Eight's status is essentially unchanged. WInds are still 35 mph. The center is moving WNW at 10 mph. Coordinates are 13.9 N and 47.5 W, about 800 miles east of the Lesser Antilles.

September 12 - With their 1 p.m. CDT update, the National Hurricane Center upgraded a system in the U.S. Gulf of Mexico to Tropical Storm Humberto. Location is 28.3 N and 95.1 W, about 100 miles south of Houston. Top sustained wind speed is 45 mph. The storm is moving north at 6 mph. It is expected to make landfall late this evening along the Texas coast between Port O'Connor and the TX/Louisiana border. Rainfall amounts of 5-10" are forecast for SE Texas and SW Louisiana, with isolated areas receiving up to 15" of rain. This is not the best news for this part of Texas, which has had a very rainy summer already. The storm is predicted to track more NE into north Louisiana once it reaches land.

Perhaps a greater long-term threat is Tropical Depression 8, which has formed at 13.2, 44.6N, about 1000 miles east of the Lesser Antilles in the Caribbean. This storm has winds of 35 mph and is moving WNW at 12 mph. The NHC shows the system becoming Tropical Storm Ingrid by tomorrow, and staying at that level for the next several days while it moves slowly toward Puerto Rico. "Ingrid"'s projected track is troubling because it could pass north of Puerto Rico into "Hurricane Alley" between Cuba and Florida. Both Katrina and Rita followed this course in 2005. I will follow this storm closely and provide frequent updates.


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